450
FXUS66 KSGX 020530
AFDSGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Diego CA
1030 PM PDT Tue Sep 1 2026

.SYNOPSIS...
Cooler and drier weather will continue for inland areas this week,
with high temperatures as much as 5 to 10 degrees below average
through Friday. Lowest daytime relative humidity for the deserts
will fall to 10 to 15 percent through Thursday. Southwest to west
winds will gust 25 to 35 mph during the afternoons and early
evenings through Thursday, with near critical fire weather
conditions on the desert slopes of the mountains. Warmer and more
humid for the Labor Day weekend. Mid and high level moisture from
the tropics could interact with a trough of low pressure near the
California coast, bringing a chance for showers and a slight
chance of thunderstorms during the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

A low pressure system near the west coast will maintain onshore
flow with a deeper marine layer and cooler, drier conditions
through Friday. Inland high temperatures will be 5 to 10 degrees
below average. High temperatures will range from the mid to upper
70s near the coast, the mid 80s to lower 90s for the Inland Empire
and around 100 in the lower deserts. Night and morning low clouds
will be patchy, but may extend inland into portions of the
western valleys at times. Low humidity and gusty westerly winds
will bring locally elevated fire weather conditions to the desert
slopes during the afternoons.

Tropical Storm Marie is currently about 1,300 miles south
southeast of San Diego. It is expected to move to the northwest at
about 9 mph and strengthen, becoming a hurricane on Thursday
before beginning to weaken late Saturday. By Sunday, it is
expected to be about 775 miles southwest of San Diego.

The most likely scenario for southern California would be for
some mid and high level moisture from Hurricane Marie to be drawn
northeastward across southern California into the Great Basin by
the low pressure system off the West Coast. This would bring a
chance of showers and a slight chance of thunderstorms from
Saturday into next Monday.

Forecast details are still uncertain but a majority of ensemble
members indicate periods of (generally) light precipitation for
the weekend, although brief periods of locally heavier
precipitation cannot be ruled out if tstms develop.

Warmer and drier weather will likely return for next Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...
020530Z...Coasts...SCT to locally BKN low clouds based 1200-1600
feet MSL through Wednesday morning. Cigs most likely 07-12Z. Very
patchy, isolated low clouds after 04Z Wednesday night.

.Valleys/Mountains/Deserts...Mostly clear skies through Wednesday.
Breezy westerly winds mainly through mountain passes and desert
slopes 21-07Z Wednesday afternoon and eve. Gusts 25-40 kts with
pockets of moderate up/downdrafts over and in lee of ridges.

&&

.MARINE...
No hazardous marine conditions are expected through Saturday. Wind
gusts around 20 knots are expected each afternoon and evening
through Thursday in the vicinity of San Clemente Island.

&&

.BEACHES...
Southerly swells from tropical cyclones will continue this week. A
large south swell from Tropical Storm Marie will move into the
region this Saturday, likely peaking Sunday-Monday. While there is
uncertainty in the exact track of Marie which could result in
differences in swell and surf direction and height, this will very
likely result in elevated to high surf and strong rip and longshore
currents for south and southwest-facing beaches. At this point,
maximum surf of 6-10 feet is forecast for south/southwest beaches,
with the potential for higher sets. This combined with higher-end
astronomical tides will increase the potential for tidal overflow
and coastal flooding Sat-Mon, highest chances Monday. Stay tuned as
details become clearer in coming days.

&&

.SKYWARN...
Skywarn activation is not requested. However weather spotters are
encouraged to report significant weather conditions.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...None.
PZ...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...PG
AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...MM

NWS San Diego (SGX) Office